What if I told you that the gap of 20% just a few months ago between the Conservatives and Labour narrowed to a mere 6%… Would you believe me? Probably not, but guess what, ’tis true! The recent Angus Reid poll showed the following results:
Conservatives: 41%
Labour: 35%
Liberal Democrats: 16%
Other: 8%
The one key event that could have possibly created such a turnaround is a) the global economic crisis and b) Brown’s speech on that very subject on November 17th. First off, the economic crisis. When people are scared of bad economic times, do they want change? No. They want the same, comfortable government, even if that government has screwed them in the past. Yet this comes with a clause, only if said government can help them in the future where in turn comes in part b, Brown’s speech. Brown made a fairly good speech on global co-operation to get out of this economic crisis. As a result, much of Labour’s gain during the past few weeks can be attributed to this (well not this poll, but probably the next one due to the fact that these results are from November 9th.)
No. It will not happen. The general trend has been that support for Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom has been decreasing while support for staying within the U.K. has been increasing. The most recent Angus Reid poll shows 31% for independence, 53% against, and increase of 3% for anti-independence. If this trend continues (as it has this year) support could be down to 25% by the end of next year, with up to 60% against the independence of Scotland. For those not included are either in the “don’t know” section or “would not vote.” These two groups generally stay the same totaling around 15-17% of those polled. Thus the chances of Scottland’s independence being supported in the next decade? I would have to say quite low.
I am back (in black… good song), and have several new elections up, including the US Senate and presidential, the Zambian presidential, and many others! Check them out
After losing over 20 seats compared to the previous election in Canada, Liberal leader Stephane Dion said he would step down as leader once a new leader for the party was chosen. He stated this at the conference today, ”I have informed the president of the Liberal Party of Canada and the president of the national caucus that I will stay as leader until a new leader is chosen at a leadership convention that I have asked to be organized.” The Liberals have to choose a good leader this time round. They could go for the Conservative candidate, Ignatieff if he chooses to run again, or go for the Left candidate, Bob Rae. Then again no confirmation that either of them shall run has been announced. Either way, the Liberals need to assert their power in parliament in order to gain power back.
Interesting fact: Stephane Dion is the only Liberal leader not to have been Prime Minister of Canada.
Here are the two different predictions (by polling corporations) that have been released today for tonight’s results. I’ll also show my predictions last as seen in the previous post, Canada: 2008 Predictions and Poll Compilation.
It is finally complete! Note: there may be some new polls released while I was making this. Screw them. Also I didn’t know there was no Central Nova candidate for the Liberals while I was making this so damn that. If you’re too lazy to read here’s the prediction: (first #=seats, second #=percent of popular vote)
After the epic failure of my computer I have been unable to follow any of the upcoming/finished (Lithuania, today) elections, but luckily it is alive once more. Expect an extremely in-depth report on the Canadian election on the 14th, tomorrow. Meanwhile, to celebrate that the computer is “still alive” here.
With one week to go, the Conservatives are down in the polls and the Liberals have gained some momentum. At present, we can grant this godsend for the Liberals due to the debates (even though Harper was generally considered to have won them). This is due to the fact that whenever an event occurs, it usually takes some time for the voters and pundits to process it and eventually influence the people. Anyways, the Conservatives are down ~3%, while the Liberals are up ~3% compared to the polls a few days ago. In fact, the average for October 6th’s polls are as follow. Changes are compared with the 5th’s poll results.
A new political party has been formed in Russia amongst the former President of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, and the billionaire deputy of the Fair Russia party (a socialist party with 38 seats in the State Duma). The new party has been dubbed the Independent Democratic Party of Russia, and is based upon liberal ideals. Nevertheless, the Union of Social Democrats are the base of the party members, but Lebedev has stated that right wing politicians could join so long as there is no extremism within the party. Basically the main goal of the party is to reform Russia, as Lebedev said ”[Gorbachev] gave our people freedom, but we have not learned how to use it.” He stated that the main goals of the Independent Democratic Party of Russia (feeling like shortening this here on in to IDPR) are that the ”party will press for legal and economic reform and promote the growth of independent media” and ”less state capitalism.” At present the success of the party seems unlikely as Putin has done an extraordinary job of bringing Russia back to the world stage as an economic and military power. What is left to do is create political power within Russia. That does not exist, and it seems unlikely that it shall even with this new party, but nevertheless people want change. In a recent poll by Angus-Reid, 75.0% of Russians wanted reform by gradual change. If Lebedev’s party succeeds in reaching the people, they may well win the next election.
